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Rents are now growing at a perfectly average monthly paceĪsking rents climbed 0.6% month over month again in June, a perfectly normal monthly growth rate for this time of year, based on pre-pandemic averages from 2015 to 2019. That is the typical seasonal cycle of the housing market, and it has not deviated from seasonal norms so far this year.

The gradual tapering of sales volume and sales speed together indicate that negotiating power has likely begun to swing in buyers’ favor, and those who remain in the hunt should expect the pendulum to swing more in their favor as the summer wears on. Nonetheless, even in those years the third quarter was the second busiest, as buyer activity usually only gradually declines in the dog days of summer.Īnother indicator of (slightly) slowing buyer activity, in a literal sense: the median pending sale took 11 days in June, one day slower than the seasonal low of 10 days to pending in April and May. On a monthly basis, newly pending sales dipped 4.7% from May to June, suggesting that seasonality will follow the trends seen in 2018, 2019, and 2022, when pending sales activity peaked for the year in May. Our data indicate that home values crossed that threshold in June, on a national basis, but have not yet gotten back to their old heights in even half of the 50 largest metro areas. It could be that some homeowners have been waiting until prices set new heights before opting to cash in their chips by selling. That created a strange dual reality for the housing market this spring: Negative year-over-year price reports in many markets, coupled with surprisingly competitive shopping conditions that were sending prices back up on a monthly basis.

On a national basis, home values declined 4% from their peak in mid-2022 until January - and fell much more in many parts of the country - before things turned around almost everywhere in the new year. It would be costly for homeowners – most of whom have a mortgage significantly below today’s rates and intend to turn around and borrow for their next home purchase – to list their home.Īnother potential culprit, with more optimistic implications, could be homeowners’ fear of selling for less than their peak potential sale price. The dearth of new listings has dogged the housing market for almost a year now, and the chief suspect remains unchanged: today’s higher mortgage rates ( 6.8% as of this writing, the highest since November, up from 5.3% a year ago and 2.9% two years ago). This month only 376,500 new listings came to market, which is more comparable to the shoulders of the winter market doldrums, like February (about 341,500 average new listings) and October (about 384,100), than to the average new listings in June (505,100) in Zillow’s listings data which extends back to 2018. It is worth pausing to contemplate just how low the trend ran in June, which is normally among the two or three busiest months of the year for new listings. This will probably mark the low water point for year-over-year comparisons in new listings – they began to plunge last July, so this year’s low flow will not look as extremely low by comparison. There were 28% fewer new listings than last June, reprising the jaw-dropping deficit observed in April after a more modest 25% year-over-year decline in May. The lack of new listings only intensified this June Annual price gains are highest in Richmond (5.3%), Miami (5.3%), Milwaukee (4.3%), Oklahoma City (4.2%), and Cincinnati (4.2%). Home values are down from year-ago levels in just over half (27) of the 50 largest metro areas, most significantly in Austin (-11.2%), San Francisco (-7.7%), Phoenix (-7.2%), Las Vegas (-7.0%), and Sacramento (-5.8%). For the third month in a row, tech hubs San Jose (1.6%) and Seattle (1.5%) saw monthly price gains above the national average, while San Francisco (1.0%) fell a step behind the national pace this month. Prices kept rising amid tight inventory even in pricey West Coast markets that had big price drops in late 2022. The slowest monthly growth was in Austin (0.4%), Jacksonville (0.8%), Memphis (0.8%), San Antonio (0.8%), and Birmingham (0.8%). Home values grew, on a monthly basis, in all of the 50 largest metro areas, repeating May’s clean sweep. By that standard, Los Angeles was the only expensive metro in the 10 fastest-growing markets (seventh biggest monthly gain, at 1.9%). Those five markets all have lower typical home values than the national level ($350,213). markets saw home values rise in June, but more than half remain below year-ago levelsĪffordable metro areas had some of the biggest monthly home value gains in June, led by Chicago (2.1% increase from May), followed by Buffalo (2.1%), New Orleans (2.1%), Hartford (2.1%), and Detroit (2.0%).